Awkward Utopia

Now that we have moved into the general campaign between Senators Obama and McCain, the candidates are anxious to show their claws. Already, the candidates have begun an intricate dance over the important issue of the economy and gas prices by offering differing proposals. While one candidate’s proposals actually make the problem worse (Obama’s), McCain’s are merely ineffectual, gimmicky, or otherwise. Offshore drilling would be a great start, but I am not sure what power he has to do this, and he should have voted for ANWR drilling long ago, so his volte-face is insincere at best.

I thought I would mention an anecdotal observation. Maybe it’s just my Republican eyes at work, but it seems like whenever the McCain campaign comes out with a proposal, the campaign “senses weakness” in Obama on the issue or “is making a calculation” — in other words, their proposals, ideas, and beliefs are merely a function of tactical decisions to get into the White House. Whenever the Obama campaign comes out with a policy or makes a statement, Obama has a conviction, a value, a belief, and he senses that people really want it. There may be exceptions, but watch for this as a general trend. I’ve seen it so much that I no longer believe it is happenstance and may indeed be a conspiracy.

And second, if the McCain campaign would run the numbers on the issue, it looks as though they would be a clear winner on the affirmative action issue. In Florida, Governor Bush eliminated affirmative action in many areas, and the issue is no longer compelling to Florida voters. We do not argue about it in gubernatorial campaigns. Democrats are not talking about bringing it back. This is telling. I suspect the same thing would happen federally, and I saw this article today in WSJ talking about the issue. Far more blacks opposed it than most might initially believe (27%), though this isn’t surprising because many do not want special favors, but there is this especially odd note:

Many economists and sociologists agree that affirmative-action programs have helped spur the growth of the black middle and upper classes, defined as households making more than $40,000 a year. Today, this group accounts for about 40% of black households, up from about 25% in 1970, according to U.S. Census figures. During that same period, the percentage of white households in the middle class and above has risen to about 60%, from just under 50%.

I am far more dubious of the claim that affirmative action helped. First, employers can successfully employ all kinds of different methods to discriminate. Perhaps they can weight other issues more heavily than race. If they really want to discriminate, just as avoiding rent control (charging a high application fee, etc.), there are many many ways. Second, I remember seeing a graph of black integration to the work force. As with women, it was rising VERY quickly right up until the implementation of affirmative action. After implementation, it neither increases nor decreased the slope of integration, though it has since leveled off as one would expect controlling for all other factors at work. This suggests, though not necessarily, that affirmative action either had no effect or only had a negligible one.