During a recent stroll down South Beach’s Lincoln Road, a pedestrian street known for its shopping, I contemplated the sound and the fury circulating about the supposed harsh recession underway. One would imagine that during hard times, or even the threat of hard times, retail activity would be much diminished. And such a narrative would appear to make sense. Our currency is worth less (two words) practically every day, the real estate and financial sectors appear to have gotten stuck in the mud, and high oil prices have pushed gasoline well above $3 per gallon.
One would expect to find shopping areas somewhat sparse given this situation. The reality, however, was quite different. The street was packed. Stores were busy, restaurants were inundated with customers, and shuttered windows were few and far between. This is not an isolated phenomenon. In numerous other malls and shopping areas throughout the Miami area, expansion projects were either underway or recently completed and shopping activity had not appeared to wane drastically. The same is reported in other US cities such as New York.
Aside from the probable reality that times are not really as bad as some believe, an interesting and promising trend has become apparent. Thousands, if not millions of international tourists are flocking to the United States not just for leisure activities and urban tourism but also to shop. According to a recent article from The Economist, the United States ran a $17.8b travel surplus last year and, despite new passport restrictions, visits from Canada were up 11% on the previous year and visits from Mexico were up 13%. Home insurance price
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Large numbers of Europeans as well as smaller but rapidly increasing numbers of Indian and Chinese tourists have also been flocking to the US in recent years. For many international travelers, a trip to the US represents an opportunity to purchase goods like clothing, shoes, and even iPods at a considerable discount. Major shopping cities like Miami and New York have reported 22% increases in international visitors in 2007 alone. This translates into a profound but often ignored impact on the economy as a whole. In fact, travel and tourism has become a larger segment of total U.S. exports than the auto industry.
This is, of course, a perfectly reasonable and understandable trend. The dollar has fallen relative to the euro, the yen, the pound, and most other major currencies. China and India are developing rapidly, and despite noteworthy inflation rates, prices in the United States remain comparatively low. While this trend clearly cannot be counted on to carry the economy alone, it nonetheless represents an important opportunity for ongoing and future growth.