We have all been receiving mixed signals for weeks now on the Israeli strike in Syria. Common sense indicates that Israel acted on reliable intelligence that something being built there posed a threat to its security. It is very unlike Israel to violate another country’s sovereignty without just cause in my opinion. For a good discussion on some recent intelligence, ArmsControlWonk has the goods. He is generally skeptical of these sorts of things, and asks the right questions, just to get some closure on the issue.
The looming question remains: What do we do, if anything, about Iran?
Although I generally agree that Israel is not the type to violate another nations sovereignty without just cause I am skeptical about what their leadership uses as “just cause” at any given moment. Moreover, due to the sensitive nature of intelligence operations (especially in that part of the world) I doubt we will know the details of what exactly went down in Syria for some time to come.
As far as Iran goes, just recently a report came out detailing how our Air Force will be working on adapting a 30,000 pound massive ordinance penetrator (currently only carried by B-2/B-52 non-stealth aircrafts) to the B-2 stealth bomber. This suggests we are preparing to deal with the nuclear-Iran issue without disrupting their existing air defense.
http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2007/10/airforce_b2bomb_071023W/
I would also like to point out that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. government. It appears that these recent events constitute some serious posturing on the part of the U.S. to be able to carry out negotiations from a position of power. Hopefully sanctions can be maintained or strengthened, as they appear to be working. It’s my understanding that, contrary to what some polls may say, Ahmadinejad is losing support largely due to economic failures which have been accentuated, if not caused, by the sanctions. I find it interesting, however, that the media can mindlessly transition from a story questioning the wisdom of invading Iraq to a story promoting war with Iran.
My understanding is largely concurrent with yours, David, regarding the polls in Iran, although I was under the impression most of that did not stem from sanctions. I would be interested to read something in-depth on it.
Among other media which seem to support my view, the brief Reuters article at the bottom of this comment suggests some optimism on the part of Western governments about the effectiveness of the sanctions. It reports a 34% drop in European investment in Iran. Also, I have heard some analysis that states that the labelling of the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds forces as terrorist groups is partly designed as a hindrance to the Iranian economy. This is primarily because these two groups are said to play a huge role in the economy of Iran.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2329559720071023?pageNumber=1