Awkward Utopia

This is no Multum in Parvo, but there are a few blogs that amount to mandatory reading and I think deserve round-ups. Registan, linked from Awkward Utopia, is one such blog. I have made mild criticisms of the tone of the posts in the past (here, here), but the truth is that the quality of information and analysis is outstanding, and certainly unrivaled for blogs pertaining to the region. Seriously. If you read about Central Asia, you will be hooked and wonder why you weren’t reading about it before. Not because it’s as important as the authors argue, but because it’s so interesting!

As a testament blog’s quality, a growing number of bloggers and MySpacers have flat-out plagiarized Registan in the past year, so hopefully I will not run afoul of its fickle authors in this post, where everything receives proper attribution.

In “Usmanov, Devourer of Websites,” Nathan writes about a billionaire named Usmanov who is wreaking havoc in the region and punishing those who get in his way, no matter where they come from, by exerting his influence. ( Be sure to click on the link to see the resonance of our own Taser Guy’s message: umm… don’t tase me bro! ) The infuriated Usmanov went after one critic in particular, trying to silence him, but Nathan reproduces the damning, if not quite hortatory, criticism. One paragraph in particular that I would like to call attention to is:

Usmanov has two key alliances. he is very close indeed to President Karimov, and especially to his daughter Gulnara. It was Usmanov who engineered the 2005 diplomatic reversal in which the United States was kicked out of its airbase in Uzbekistan and Gazprom took over the country’s natural gas assets. Usmanov, as chairman of Gazprom Investholdings paid a bribe of $88 million to Gulnara Karimova to secure this. This is set out on page 366 of Murder in Samarkand.

This is a very, very interesting revelation to me. The United States had seen the signals and been warned prior to being ordered to leave Uzbekistan. But the speed of such a complete u-turn, though arms had been twisted in the first place, startled people like me. I was in an argument about this very subject with a certain liberal last week. She argued that anti-American sentiment fomented by Bush led to this. I argued otherwise and seem to be largely vindicated. I had my explanations, similar to this and involving Russia as well as regime stability, but most liberals always seized on America’s cowboy diplomacy as the reason. While cowboy diplomacy may have played a role, the reality is that in what one must conclude to be a prelude to Russia’s newfound geopolitical virility, a billionaire and Russia colluded against the United States interests in the region. It fits so well! Just for good measure, if you enjoy jokes about the “bureaucratic mentality” (the only constant in the universe):

I reported back in 2002 or 2003 in an Ambassadorial top secret telegram to the Foreign Office that Usmanov was the most likely favoured successor of President Karimov as totalitarian leader of Uzbekistan. I also outlined the Gazprom deal (before it happened) and the present by Usmanov to Putin (though in Jastrzebski’s name) of half of Mapobank, a Russian commercial bank owned by Usmanov. I will never forget the priceless reply from our Embassy in Moscow. They said that they had never even heard of Alisher Usmanov, and that Jastrzebski was a jolly nice friend of the Ambassador who would never do anything crooked.

Sigh. Speaking of Russia re-asserting itself, “Pushing Influence” provides analysis from the blog’s authors, prompted by one Viktoria Panfilova as well as a Nitin Pai. Registan’s take:

…her basic theory is that Russia might use its grain surplus to exercise greater influence on the region, starting with Kyrgyzstan. Lo’ and behold: it would seem Gazprom will begin gas exploration in the south of the country next month. More details of what this will entail are a bit sketchy, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gazprom take this opportunity to buy up available shares of distribution and pipeline companies, as it has done in Europe and the Caucasus. …

Russia is out to revive its Great Power status. Manipulating food shortages is one way; playing games with basing rights and arms purchases is another. Indeed, Russia’s foreign behavior of late is distressingly similar to that of my own country—not because it is that of a bully, but because America’s behavior is often that of a bully as well.

Point taken, I suppose, but you’re not going to find proclamations of moral equivalence from me between Russian bullying and most American bullying. There’s no doubt about Russia’s desire to revive its Great Power status. The degree to which it can do so may in doubt on the global scale, but it may also not be terribly relevant. What will be far more relevant is whether it can revive its status as a Great Power on a regional scale. These posts show it has already succeeded.

Russia’s control of Central Asia is no longer in doubt. If the sh-word ever hits the fan, it can quickly bend the former Soviet republics to their will whether the republics want to be a part of the new Empire or not. The Baltic states would not be so quick to capitulate, and they are protected by NATO, but they can be neutralized without military assault. I have said for years that they will be very dangerous in their last gasp. Everyone laughed. But Vladimir Putin’s melange-induced visions they may now be less hallucinatory and much, much more real.

One question I have for Registan is: if Russia plays for keeps, and we have missed so many opportunities, why all the moaning about American bullying? Presumably you want bullying, but of a different type. Maybe a nicer, kinder, and/or smarter type? If so, please lay out the blueprint. Maybe a red state politician will hear you.